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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2020  |  Volume : 4  |  Issue : 2  |  Page : 60-64

Validation of COVID-19 spread model by early cases from Spain


Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Mbeya, Tanzania

Correspondence Address:
Prof. Isack E Kibona
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mbeya University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box: 131, Mbeya 00255
Tanzania
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/MTSP.MTSP_12_20

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This article intends to illustrate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) model if strict restriction is not enforced. Early COVID-19 cases from Spain have been considered an example. Thus, this article is for the estimation of specific parameter particularly to one of the most hit countries in April 2020. Our essence is the possibility to spot a natural model of COVID-19. The cases between March 1 and 15, 2020 have been taken to validate and estimate the parameter of the model. Parameters were estimated by a nlinfit function from MATLAB developed by Levenberg–Marquardt, and thus, so is the reproduction number (R0). R0was found greater than the unit, which is catastrophic. Cases of COVID-19 between March 1 and 15 have been chosen to validate the model because in this earlier stage of the pandemic, Spain restrictions against the spread were assumed not enough to impede the pace of natural spread to the pandemic. Had it not been the lockdown that followed after the mentioned dates, by April 15, 2020, Spain would have been in a more catastrophic situation by >3,400,000 COVID-19 infection cases far worse from 180,695 cases that happened.


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